Why Trump Represents an Unpredictable Factor in the Antitrust Battle Against Big Tech.

In today's episode of Decoder, the focus is on antitrust policy in the tech sector, a topic that becomes particularly interesting with the arrival of Trump's second administration. Tech policy, in general, is going through a strange moment, but the antitrust-related aspects seem to be the most confusing of all. In recent years, there have been drastic fluctuations in this policy, and it is about to change again under the Trump administration and its new appointments.

To shed light on this issue, Leah Nylen, a journalist specializing in antitrust who is a key voice in the field, was invited to share her perspective. Historically, the foundations of antitrust policy in the United States have remained almost unchanged since Ronald Reagan took office in 1981, continuing through the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. However, under the Biden administration, Lina Khan, chair of the FTC, and Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ's antitrust chief, have adopted a bold and aggressive approach not seen in the country for generations.

Currently, companies like Amazon, Apple, and Meta are facing significant antitrust lawsuits, while Microsoft is also under investigation. Google may be facing a potential breakup, having already lost a major case and awaiting a ruling in a second imminent ad-related case. This regulatory pressure aims to avoid what is known as the "Instagram problem," where many lament that the acquisition of Instagram by Facebook in 2012 was not prevented, a move that could have allowed Instagram to become a real competitor.

Over the past decade, the tech industry has rapidly grown and consolidated through mergers and acquisitions. This has created what some call a "death zone" for startups, as large companies buy potential competitors to eliminate them. As a result, there has been a series of hearings, press releases, and lawsuits, leading to a Biden administration eager to slow this process down. The focus has been so intense that companies have found creative ways to circumvent the perception of acquiring other firms, such as Microsoft hiring most of Inflection AI's employees without making a formal acquisition.

With Trump’s imminent return to power, he has appointed his candidates to replace Khan and Kanter. Andrew Ferguson was chosen to lead the FTC and promises to reverse Khan's agenda, maintaining a favorable stance toward large companies, except when it comes to technology, where he seeks to exert control over the sector, particularly regarding political censorship. Gail Slater was appointed to head antitrust at the DOJ, and her experience suggests that she will continue with some of the significant ongoing cases.

The situation creates curious tensions, as Leah explains. On one hand, the incoming administration would be willing to allow large companies to expand, but at the same time, it might support a potential breakup of Google, not because it believes the company acts anti-competitively, but as a punishment for its control over discourse, a concern particularly for conservatives.

This landscape raises many open questions. Large tech companies would prefer the next period to be characterized by less oversight, returning to normalcy in their business and acquisitions. However, it remains to be seen whether we will actually witness a significant change that relieves pressure on the industry, or if, on the contrary, we will see an unusual bipartisan collaboration in antitrust efforts continue during Trump's second term. Leah is one of the most insightful people to address these issues, though many uncertainties remain.