The end of the ISS will mark the beginning of a more commercial future in space.

In 2030, astronauts will prepare to leave the International Space Station (ISS) for the last time. The trajectory of this iconic structure will be altered, directing it toward the Earth's atmosphere in the following year. A deorbit vehicle, specifically designed for this purpose, will perform a reentry burn that will propel the station into the atmosphere. As the ISS enters the atmosphere at thousands of miles per hour, its large solar panels and radiators will detach, then the modules will separate, and finally, the support structure will disintegrate. As each piece heats up to extreme temperatures, its surfaces will be destroyed, leaving internal structures that will burn, melt, and evaporate, with the final remnants falling into the ocean, far from the coast.

This process will mark the end of the ISS, a symbol of the space age that has served humanity for over three decades. In its place, NASA has plans for one or more commercial space stations managed by private companies under a sustainable economic model, which will provide modern and efficient platforms for astronauts, including those from NASA, to inhabit in low Earth orbit.

However, time is limited. Companies are competing to have their space station concepts ready. To maintain a continuous human presence in space, which has been upheld for over 20 years, the private sector has only a few years to build, test, launch, and inhabit these designs. So far, we have not had commercial space stations, leaving an uncertain economic landscape.

One of the reasons for deorbiting the ISS is its age. Repairing or replacing its hardware would be expensive, and continuing to operate it each year also incurs costs. Transitioning to a commercial model could be a viable alternative, as long as it is implemented on time. NASA has expressed its intention to become a customer of space companies, collaborating with different stakeholders to reduce costs and build infrastructure.

Two companies are developing designs for independent space stations: Blue Origin and Starlab Space. In turn, Axiom Space is working on its own modular infrastructure that will initially be attached to the ISS. All these companies have NASA funding for their projects, and many others have also shown interest in participating. Nevertheless, there are concerns about possible delays in development, considering the history of missed deadlines in private company projects, as evidenced by SpaceX and Boeing.

The possibility of the stations being ready on time is a topic of concern. NASA is aware that one of its main risks is the timeline, and although they have been negotiating with these companies since 2018, there is a possibility that they may not launch before the ISS is scheduled for deorbiting. This may require extending the life of the ISS or opening a commercial station with limited capabilities.

With the change in administration, concerns arose about how the new administration might affect NASA's priorities. While there is anticipation of a focus on Mars and Moon exploration, many agree that operations in low Earth orbit will remain relevant. Despite a potential decline in governmental interest in the ISS, the needs for research and experimentation in this area continue to be significant.

Developing a sustainable economy in low orbit presents challenges, especially in terms of funding for fundamental research that does not always have immediate applications. If resources are allocated to favor commercial development, it could affect scientific research, which has traditionally been funded by government agencies.

As NASA's focus shifts toward supporting commercial space stations, it will need to relinquish some control over missions. It is vital that science and space exploration are not neglected in this transition to a more commercial model, as these activities have significantly contributed to our understanding of the universe.