Sam Altman claims that artificial intelligence is advancing faster than Moore's Law and predicts that AGI is "getting closer," raising concerns about the future.
According to Mr. Altman, we have about a year left before everything transforms.
Moore's Law, formulated by Gordon E. Moore, one of the co-founders of Intel, states that the number of components on a single chip doubles every two years at minimal cost. While it is not an exact science, his observation of the rapid evolution of chip technology since 1965 has been useful in anticipating the direction of technology in the future.
In a recent blog post, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, developers of ChatGPT, claimed that "Moore's Law has changed the world at a rate of 2x every 18 months; this is incredibly stronger." Altman referred to the remarkable decrease in costs associated with the use of artificial intelligence. For developers, this is measured in the cost of tokens, which has decreased by approximately 10x every 12 months. Between early 2023 and mid-2024, the price per token for using ChatGPT has dropped around 150x.
Altman made a small mistake when he mentioned "18 months" instead of "around two years." This figure is a common error that originates from a prediction by David House, a colleague of Moore at Intel, who stated that chip performance would double every 18 months without an increase in energy consumption.
However, what Altman points out is that the decreasing cost of using artificial intelligence is an indicator that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is "on the horizon." AGI refers to an artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human intelligence, and its development is crucial for companies like OpenAI, as the benefits of AGI could radically change the world, despite warnings about its dangers.
The full content of Altman's post deserves to be reviewed, as it serves as a wake-up call on how the future is approaching faster than one might expect and the need to prepare for the upcoming changes. Altman has made three key predictions for the near future:
- Scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today.
- The price of many goods will drop dramatically.
- The prices of luxury goods and some limited resources, like land, could increase even more.
Altman does not define a specific timeframe for these transformations, although he claims to have mentioned that humanity will achieve AGI this year, suggesting that these changes could be just around the corner.
Moreover, he warns of the difficult decisions approaching regarding AGI and its use, mentioning a possible future where "we could see authoritarian governments using AI to control their population through mass surveillance and loss of autonomy." Altman emphasizes the importance of ensuring that the benefits of AGI are widely distributed to avoid this situation.
Finally, he makes an incredible prediction: "Whoever is around in 2035 should be able to gather an intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct it according to their imagination." As we process the magnitude of Altman's vision, it is crucial to consider and discuss the risks associated with the control of this technology now.
