Responding to Readers' Questions About Artificial Intelligence, Smart Glasses, TikTok, and Other Topics.
We start the new year by opening the readers' mail.
This week presents a special edition of questions and answers, thanking everyone who submitted their inquiries. Like last year, a selection of questions addressing relevant topics has been made, which will continue to be explored in 2025.
One of the main concerns is about the near future regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on employment. There is a consensus among AI lab leaders that, although jobs will be lost, this does not mean an imminent disaster. The optimistic view holds that humans are creative and have historically found new job opportunities when technology alters the landscape. Currently, many CEOs investing in AI infrastructure believe that its impact will be deflationary and contribute to GDP growth. However, it is acknowledged that job loss will be painful. Figures like Sam Altman suggest that some form of universal basic income will be necessary to mitigate the economic consequences of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Despite these concerns, Altman mentions that AGI will be announced soon and that its arrival may go unnoticed.
Another question relates to the improvement of reasoning in AI models and its relevance. Some people have tried the pro mode of ChatGPT and have noticed differences, though it is mentioned that the improvements have not been as surprising as expected. However, it is advised to experiment with the available tools to understand their capabilities. The high barrier to entry of these "reasoning" models limits access, but it is believed that this will change drastically by 2025. On the other hand, there continues to be a need to improve the way users interact with these tools to facilitate their use.
Regarding Snap's prospects in 2025 and beyond, it faces a similar challenge to last year: its growth is not fast enough. Although the app is growing, its annual revenue is lower than that of Meta, which is unattractive to investors. The current situation of its stocks makes it difficult to attract talent, a matter that has worsened recently. Nevertheless, there is speculation that a potential ban on TikTok in the United States could quickly change the market dynamics.
In the realm of Meta, reports have mentioned the launch of smart glasses with a display screen for this year. This product, internally known as Hypernova, will be complemented by a control device based on a neural band. It is anticipated that this control will be impressive and that there will also be an optional smartwatch with additional health tracking capabilities.
As for TikTok, it seems unlikely that China will allow the platform to completely separate from ByteDance. Expectations suggest that even if the algorithm is not sold, it will be difficult for TikTok to disappear due to the amount of money and influence involved. Negotiations are expected to lead to a more favorable ownership hostage situation for ByteDance.
Finally, regarding Google, the outlook is optimistic. Although it will be a challenge to meet Sundar Pichai's mandate for Gemini to seriously compete with ChatGPT, the company has abundant resources, talent, and unparalleled distribution. However, the real challenge lies in the organizational culture, where moving quickly without fear of repercussions can be complicated.
For those interested in recommended readings, "The Biggest Bluff" by Maria Konnikova is suggested, a book that, while not about technology, offers valuable lessons on the game of poker.
