I have stopped trying to guess Nintendo's decisions, especially regarding the Switch 2.

In 2018, I had the opportunity to attend a meeting in New York with Nintendo to learn about a new initiative that promised to be an "interactive experience for Nintendo Switch." Given the company's creativity, which has launched products like the dual-screen Game Boy and bongo controllers, the possibilities were endless. However, I never imagined that this meeting would focus on folding pieces of cardboard, nor that those cardboard accessories would turn out to be so impressive. Since then, I decided to stop trying to guess Nintendo's next moves.

In recent weeks, I have often reflected on that meeting. At a time when much of the video game industry eagerly awaits the announcement of the new successor console to the Switch, Nintendo has shifted its attention to other projects. I recently visited the company in Kyoto, but it wasn't to learn about new hardware; instead, I toured the newly opened Nintendo Museum. Although a new gadget was unveiled last month, it was not a console, but an alarm clock. Furthermore, this week, details began to circulate about an online test that some hoped would provide clues about the Switch 2. But in reality, it seems to be an online game similar to Minecraft. Three significant events, with no signs of a new console.

This behavior is not new. Nintendo has a habit of operating independently. While Sony and Microsoft have launched new versions of their consoles, Nintendo opted to present a new version of the Game & Watch, an LCD handheld device from the 80s. What has been surprising is the frequency of recent announcements, which reflect its uniqueness. While it may seem like a series of random decisions, the sequence of museum openings and alarm clock launches is likely part of a well-thought-out strategy.

This could mean several things. Perhaps Nintendo is clearing the way to maintain focus on the Switch 2 when it decides to announce it. During the Switch era, the company has learned to communicate more clearly; let's remember the initial confusion caused by the Wii U announcement, which some mistook for an accessory for the Wii. Therefore, it makes sense for them to clear these kinds of initiatives before presenting their next console. Nintendo Direct presentations have become significant events, and the one dedicated to the new console will likely be the most important to date. They don't want to ruin that opportunity.

Additionally, this may reflect Nintendo's current direction, as the company seeks to be recognized as more than just a video game manufacturer. Shigeru Miyamoto, creator of Super Mario, mentioned in a press conference in Kyoto that his goal with the museum was to demonstrate that Nintendo is, above all, an entertainment company. While secretly developing a new console and successfully managing the current one, they are also exploring new directions.

This includes bringing Nintendo experiences to the real world through a partnership with Universal for a theme park, a project in which Miyamoto has played a prominent role, and its successful foray into cinema so far with The Super Mario Bros. Movie, produced by Illumination Studios. The company aims to transform itself into an entertainment empire, using its success in video games as a foundation. This suggests that Nintendo is involved in multiple projects beyond a new console; perhaps we will see a trailer for a live-action Zelda movie before we hear about the Switch 2.

However, doing things differently does not guarantee success, and Nintendo has faced failures along the way. The current success of the Switch, along with the success of the Mario movie and the Super Nintendo World theme park, comes after the tough days of the Wii U, its least-selling home console. It took 30 years for Nintendo to follow the failure of the original Mario movie with a film that grossed a billion. The video game industry is cyclical, and it’s easy to go from being a market leader to being at the bottom. This makes anticipating Nintendo's moves complicated; in 2017, I never would have thought that the Switch would be their next system, nor that it would surpass the sales of the Wii and Game Boy.

Ultimately, just as when I found myself folding cardboard in New York, I am currently struggling to understand what Nintendo executives are thinking. I have some theories, fueled by constant rumors, but I do not have a clear idea of what the next console will be like or when it will be announced. I only know that, without a doubt, it will not be dull. But if it were to be, that would be another big surprise.