Google claims that its innovative quantum chip Willow cannot compromise current cryptography.

Experts anticipate that in the future, quantum computers could render current encryption systems obsolete. However, according to Google, its new Willow chip is not designed for that purpose. Charina Chou, head of Google Quantum AI, stated that “the Willow chip is not capable of breaking modern cryptography.”

The White House warned in 2022 about the risks posed by quantum computers relevant to cryptography (CRQC), noting that they could threaten civilian and military communications, undermine critical infrastructure control systems, and compromise the security protocols of many online financial transactions. U.S. agencies have been urged to adopt new encryption systems to mitigate these risks before 2035. However, Google insists that Willow does not fall into this category.

Although the company claims that its chip can solve a computational challenge in five minutes—something that would take the world's fastest supercomputer ten septillion years—it currently only has 105 physical qubits for this purpose and estimates that millions would be needed to truly break codes. According to Chou, it is expected to take at least ten more years to break RSA, and around four million physical qubits would be required to achieve this, indicating that Willow will not alter this timeline.

On the other hand, while researchers in China have claimed to have found ways to break RSA encryption using smaller quantum computers with only hundreds or thousands of qubits, security experts have expressed skepticism about this.

Google is part of a group of companies working on defending against the potential threat of broken encryption, opting for post-quantum cryptography (PQC), especially after Edward Snowden's leaks revealed that spy agencies like the NSA were funding research on quantum computers capable of breaking codes.

In 2016, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) launched a competition to develop secure cryptographic standards against quantum computing. In August of this year, NIST finalized three algorithms and their standards for integrating them into products and systems, with plans to select one or two additional algorithms by the end of the year.

The RAND Corporation, a renowned think tank that has advised on U.S. national security, suggested in a 2023 editorial that once a quantum computer capable of breaking RSA exists, a frantic global race to defend against it will ensue: “As soon as it becomes public that a CRQC exists—or is deemed plausible—and the threat becomes real, most vulnerable organizations will immediately move to upgrade all their communication systems to post-quantum cryptography.”